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Can The Epoxy Resin Industry Chain End Perfectly This Year?

Jun 17, 2020

Last week, three products of the domestic epoxy resin industry chain all showed different degrees of increase. The epoxy resin was driven by the strong raw material bisphenol A, and the offer rose by more than 1,000 yuan/ton. Another raw material, epichlorohydrin, also suppressed. Unable to keep up the desire to increase, after the main factory offer was raised, the pull-up mode was opened. So, can the epoxy resin industry chain end?

First look at bisphenol A. At present, the operating load of domestic factories is not low. Sinopec Mitsui, Nanya Plastics and other factories have maintained normal production. The operating load of Sinopec Mitsubishi, Nantong Xingchen, and Changchun Chemical is also about 80-9%, and the monthly supply remains Above 80,000 tons. However, the bearish sentiment of the early-stage industry was released early, and the operation was relatively conservative, which made the imports shrink, which caused a tight supply situation for a while. The producers also took advantage of the increase in upstream raw materials to create more favorable conditions for bisphenol A, making the gains in full swing, eventually breaking the 11,000 yuan / ton mark, a record high since 2015.

Looking at epichlorohydrin again, the previous upswing is inseparably related to the downturn of this period. According to past experience, every time the upswing of epichlorohydrin is too large, it will inevitably cause downstream resentment and make high prices. Nameless. However, under the constant backlog of domestic factory inventories, prices can only be promoted, and prices have once again returned to lows. This time, due to the shortage of raw materials for glycerin and the continuous upward movement of propylene, there was already a willingness to market under the cost pressure of the factory. In addition, Haili Dafeng, Shandong Hebang, and Ningbo Huanyang installations were shut down. The other factories had lower construction loads and supply. Slightly nervous, after the main factory offer increased, a new round of rally kicked off.

In the early stage, in the face of the strength and weakness of the dual raw materials, the epoxy resin factory struggled to follow up, and some offers had risen by more than 2,000 yuan/ton. At this time, epichlorohydrin swept the previous haze, high prices frequently appeared, and some resin factories Overwhelmed by the cessation of the offer, the industry is struggling with extraordinarily. On the one hand, it is worried that the cost pressures have been overreported. On the other hand, the existing orders of the factory are mostly low-priced orders in the early stage. The cost is calculated to be too high. Ability, can only actively settle the previous contract, miserable.

In view of the market outlook, since the price of raw material bisphenol A broke through the psychological price point of the industry since the price broke "10,000", its trading volume has also shrunk increasingly, showing a state of high price shrinkage. The epichlorohydrin plant that has just raised its price just took advantage of the trend, but the downstream is already weak and there are still low-priced stocks, and its outlook is not optimistic. Epoxy resins have a higher risk at the end of the sensitive period when the financial pressure is greater at the end of the year. While struggling to move up, you need to be cautious when trading, in order to complete the end of the year.